Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS62 KMLB 220608
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
108 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

- Another cold night with lows in the 40s for most and wind
  chills in the 30s west of I-95

- Boating conditions becoming poor to hazardous Sunday into
  Monday, especially offshore

- Onshore winds return Monday, bringing warmer temperatures and
  increasing rain chances for the holiday week

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Now-Tonight...As promised, it is a cooler afternoon when compared
to yesterday (5 to 10 degrees cooler in spots). Shallow cumulus
is streaming from north to south along the Volusia and northern
Brevard coasts, where north winds of 10-15 mph are gusting up to
20 mph at times. Sky and wind conditions remain similar overnight
with clearer weather expected over the interior. This is reflected
by lows reaching the low 40s west of I-95, compared to temps in
the mid to upper 40s along the coast. A couple of spots in far
north Lake and Volusia counties could hit the upper 30s for a
brief time around sunrise Sunday. In addition, wind chill values
will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s areawide.

Sunday-Monday...Sunday begins cold, but with winds turning onshore
and plenty of sunshine, most locations will bounce back into the
mid 60s and low 70s in the afternoon. High pressure builds across
the area as winds become breezy to gusty at times (up to 20-25
mph). The cloudiest locations will be at the coast, where moisture
deepens just enough to allow an isolated shower or two to approach
in the afternoon and evening. This activity continues overnight as
low temperatures retreat into the low to mid 50s (closer to 60
degrees at the coast). These lows are nearer to normal for mid
December.

It appears that the highest coverage of showers next week could
occur on Monday as SFC-850mb winds line up perpendicular to the
coast. PW also increase to 1+" through the day. Models indicate a
developing surface trough near or just off the shore Monday
through mid week, which will also help bump rain chances up a bit.
The warming trend from Sunday ramps up on Monday with highs
returning to near normal (low/mid 70s). Conditions will remain
breezy but especially so at the immediate coast.

Tuesday-Friday...Ridging aloft with some semblance of a surface
trough will remain in play Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, with
model solutions varying in output mid to late week. One constant
through the extended period will be a continued warming trend with
daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 70s (maybe even 80
degrees, far interior). Rain chances are forecast to parallel the
coast, perhaps staying offshore for a better portion of Tuesday.
In addition, some drier air will be impinging on areas north of
I-4. By Christmas Day, the more progressive GFS paints a weak mid
level trough pushing across north-central Florida, while the
ECMWF points to a stouter ridge. Therefore, stayed near the
previous forecast with slight chance to chance PoPs from then on
into late week. Some models hint at enough instability along the
coast Wednesday afternoon, but kept thunder mention out over the
waters for now, with just showers over land.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Poor boating conditions tonight over the Volusia and offshore
Brevard waters become hazardous Sunday into Monday, as north-
northeasterly winds freshen and seas build up to 5-7 ft. High
pressure builds over the waters into early week before a surface
trough shapes up through the middle part of next week. NNE winds
15-20 kt with 25 kt gusts on Sunday turn onshore by Monday
afternoon, then lighten a touch through Wednesday. Seas remain
poor to hazardous through Tuesday but improve thereafter. Shower
activity picks up Sunday night into Monday, continuing through
much of the week. Isolated lightning storms are possible Tuesday
and Wednesday, though confidence is low in these occurring.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 108 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through 18Z. MVFR CIGs are
forecast at the coastal TAF sites after 18Z-22Z with the potential for
MVFR CIGs at times at the inland TAF sites into Sunday evening. Light
west-northwest winds are forecast to increase after 14Z-16Z at
around 10-12kts with gusts to 15-18kts before weakening after 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  55  70  55 /  20  40  30  30
MCO  68  55  73  56 /  10  30  20  10
MLB  70  59  74  59 /  30  30  30  20
VRB  72  59  76  60 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  66  51  71  54 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  68  54  73  55 /  20  40  20  20
ORL  69  55  73  57 /  10  30  20  10
FPR  71  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Fehling