Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXUS62 KMLB 281840
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- High coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms into next
  week.

- Hot temperatures and increased humidity will lead to peak heat
  indices 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon. Proper precautions
  should be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before
  you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Current-Tonight...Hot and humid conditions this afternoon with
maxes topping out in the L-M90s for most along with peak heat
indices of 100-105F. Continue to use caution if spending time
outdoors to avoid heat-related illness. The Atlc ridge axis
continues near the central FL peninsula, while aloft, the mid-upper
level circulation persists over Georgia. PWATs will range from 1.80-
2.20 inches with 500 mb temps near -8C.

Expect fairly high coverage (60-70pct) of convection this
afternoon/evening with initiation along the coast (sea breeze), with
coverage/intensity increasing further inland as the east coast sea
breeze ventures into the interior interacting with the west coast
sea breeze and additional mesoscale boundaries. Storm steering
flow is light (W --> E), but stronger boundary collisions late
may make cell movement erratic. A few strong storms will be
possible with primary storm impacts of frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes, gusty winds locally to 50 mph, small hail in
play, and torrential downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding
potential. The WPC has outlooked much of ECFL in a Marginal threat
for heavy rainfall as quick accumulations of 1-3 inches locally
will be possible. Activity will linger during the evening
gradually dissipating late. Clouds thin overnight with drier,
but muggy conditions.

Winds will become light SW/W (perhaps variable) later tonight and
overnight mins generally L-M70s, perhaps U70s for barrier islands.

Sun-Tue...Previous Modified...The surface ridge axis will continue
across central and south-central FL thru this period. Aloft,
previous mid/upper-level troughiness washes out over the southeast
U.S., while another low drifts towards the southeast FL peninsula
from the Bahamas. Persistent pattern day to day, with high moisture
(PWATs 1.8-2.0") and generally light S/SW flow. Daily coverage of
showers and lightning storms between 60-70%. Afternoon sea breeze
and various other mesoscale boundary collisions over the interior
will maintain convection into the evening hours, before drier
conditions develop overnight with thinning cloud-cover. Slow-moving
storms will be capable of strong wind gusts locally to around 50
mph, small hail, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy
rainfall. Minor flooding concerns may increase in any areas that
receive multiple rounds (days) of heavy rainfall. However, recent
dry and drought conditions should appreciate the rainfall.
Seasonable temperatures continue, with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Humidity will lead to apparent temperatures closer to
the upper 90s and low 100s.

Wed-Sat...Previous Modified...The active pattern looks to continue
into the long range, as the surface ridge moves eastward and the
ridge axis drifts south/east away from the area. Models suggest a
surface trough digging into the southeast U.S. and perhaps the
northeast Gulf late in the week. The evolution of this feature
will bear watching over the next several days. However, the
overall forecast message remains the same: persistent south to
southwesterly flow leading to humid and wet conditions, as deep
moisture remains over the area. High coverage of showers and
lightning storms is expected to continue into the holiday weekend,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. For now, continue
to maintain PoPs between 60-70%. While showers and storms keep
high temperatures seasonable in the upper 80s to lower 90s, humid
conditions will continue to produce heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Previous Modified...High coverage of afternoon/evening showers
and lightning storms will continue through at least mid next week.
Some of this activity will be capable of moving across the
intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters, particularly into the
late afternoon and evening hours. However, weak steering flow will
mean propagation will be largely boundary driven. A few storms
could be strong, capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. S/SW winds prevailing into
next week, remaining less than 15 kts. However, winds become SE
along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and
pushes slowly inland. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Increasing coverage of showers and storms is forecast through the
remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours, with TEMPOs at
all terminals generally between 19 to 01Z for gusty winds and
reduced VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity diminishes beyond 00Z,
becoming VCSH and eventually moving offshore. SSW winds today
become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the SW
across the interior and out of the ESE along the coast after 15Z.
Another day of active weather is anticipated tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  72  88 /  60  50  50  70
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  50  70
MLB  73  89  74  88 /  50  60  50  60
VRB  70  89  71  89 /  50  50  30  50
LEE  74  89  74  87 /  50  60  50  70
SFB  74  92  74  89 /  50  60  50  70
ORL  74  91  75  89 /  50  60  50  70
FPR  70  88  71  89 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen