Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS62 KMLB 042353
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
753 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will persist through
  Wednesday

- Daily shower and storm chances, maximized in the afternoon and
  evening hours, bring the potential for gusty winds, frequent
  lightning strikes, and localized flooding

- Above normal rain chances are forecast late in the week as a
  disturbance slowly approaches the area

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Thru Tonight...East coast sea breeze is pushing inland sparking
isolated to scattered storms. A collision with the west coast
breeze and other lake/outflow boundaries will produce an increase
in storm coverage on the east side of the peninsula during the
early evening (5-8pm) with some push back to the coast. Unlike
last night, convection should diminish by midnight. Heavy rain and
frequent lightning strikes will be the primary threats. The late
morning Cape sounding shows a drier mid layer which should support
more gusty winds than previous days so an isolated severe storm
with damaging wind is possible.

Tue-Wed...Weak ridging aloft stays put over central Florida on
Tuesday, breaking down on Wednesday as a disturbance approaches
the southeast U.S coast. The stalled surface front remains in a
similar location across north Florida, perhaps drifting closer to
the local area by the latter half of Wednesday. As a result, we
will remain in a similar pattern of hot temperatures and scattered
to numerous showers/storms. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day
of the next seven. Combined with PW of 2.1"+ in place, heat index
values will range from 103-107 in many locations. Reaching Heat
Advisory levels (108 degrees) is feasible for several sites across
the interior, so long as convection does not reach those
locations first. With a more dominant onshore flow returning
Wednesday, the east coast breeze will develop sooner and push
farther inland, taking the higher rain chances with it. Heat
indices are still forecast to hover in the 102-107 degree range
Wed afternoon. Overnight lows settle in the mid to upper 70s,
prolonging muggy conditions and offering little relief from the
daytime heat.

Thu-Sun...An elongated area of low pressure is forecast to
organize into a weak surface low off of the Carolina coast later
in the week. This is shown in the TWO with a 30% formation chance.
This disturbance is forecast to track toward the west or northwest
late week and this weekend and remain weak but produce a heavy
rain threat. Plumes of higher PW, associated with a mid level
wave, look to move over the FL Peninsula Thursday through Sunday.
Above normal rain chances are forecast as a result, maximized each
afternoon and evening along the sea breeze and storm- scale
boundary collisions. DCAPE looks less impressive in this moisture-
laden environment, so gusty winds from storms would be a result
of water-loaded downdrafts. With a few more clouds and rain
around, temperatures will settle closer to normal for this time of
year (low 90s daytime / low-mid 70s overnight). Looking ahead
into early next week, slightly lower rain chances could briefly
return as mid level energy exits toward the Gulf.

NHC has drawn a 50% formation chance for the tropical wave just
off the African coast. Their 7-day point is located at 25N 60W
which is a blend of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, the latter of
which are farther south. We are heading into peak hurricane season
for the Atlc basin (mid Aug- mid Oct) so it is not a surprise the
tropics are becoming more active.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ridging begins to lift northward early in the week with a stationary
surface front remaining north of the local waters. SSW winds 5-10 kt
turn onshore in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms
(gusts around 15 kt possible along the coast). Light winds turn ENE
Wednesday and Thursday, becoming southerly again on Friday.
Incoming swell builds seas up to 5 ft offshore tonight, followed
by decreasing seas mid to late week. Showers and storms are
forecast through the week, especially Thu-Fri as a weak low or
sharp trough approaches from the east. Locally higher winds (34+
kt) and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the most
organized activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ongoing convection across east central Florida has led to ongoing
TEMPOs at MCO and SFB through 01Z and at TIX, MLB, VRB, and FPR
through 02Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Activity
diminishes beyond 02Z, with light winds overnight at all
terminals. ECSB develops around 17-18Z, with VCTS at the coastal
terminals. Progression inland is forecast along with increasing
coverage of showers and storms, with VCTS at the interior
terminals after 20Z. TEMPOs likely needed, but not confident
enough on timing to add in. Will monitor in future packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  76  91 /  40  70  30  60
MCO  77  95  77  94 /  50  70  30  70
MLB  77  92  77  92 /  30  50  20  50
VRB  75  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  50
LEE  77  94  76  94 /  50  70  30  70
SFB  77  95  77  95 /  40  70  30  60
ORL  78  95  77  95 /  50  70  30  70
FPR  74  92  74  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen